Heavy snow squalls are heading toward the Champlain Valley, just in time for rush hour, the National Weather Service has just announced.
According to a Special Weather Statement, the squalls will arrive in the Champlain Valley by 4:30 p.m. Though accumulations won't be tremendous, visibility during the squalls will drop to near zero and roads will quickly ice up.
You can see the snow squall lline in central New York in this radar pic from 3:20 p.m. today. It's that narrow line from northwest of Plattsburgh to the middle of the state.
Take care driving home this evening.
P.S. That storm Tuesday is still up in the air. It could go by to our east and miss, clobber us, or go west and rain on us. We'll learn more by Sunday
The only thing consistent about forecasts of a humongous East Coast storm that would affect us Tuesday is the fact there will be a big storm.
What's in it for us? Earliest forecasts called for a big snowstorm. Yesterday, the computer models forecasters rely upon said we'd get a pretty good slug of rain Tuesday. This morning, the models have shifted the storm further east, so we're back under the gun for a big snowstorm. One forecast takes a stab at snowfall prediction (see map) and it puts western Vermont and northern New York into 15 or more inches of snow.
A few models take the storm so far east we only get a little snow. Confused? Good. So am I.
Over at Accuweather, Jesse Ferrell in his blogoffers some meteorologists' thoughts, for what they're worth.
The computer models will surely keep flip-flopping until Sunday at least, so all I can tell you is expect that something will come out of the sky next Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast is more certain through Sunday. Relatively mild with flurries today, colder tomorrow, a little warmer again Sunday.
I'll update the storm for next Tuesday as warranted, and as always, weigh in with your thoughts on this.
The snowstorm, as anyone can tell by looking out their window, is over. It was a bit smaller than forecast. The official total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was 9.1 inches. Different forecasts had called for 10.5, 13.2 or 12.2 inches there.
The overall forecast had called for 8-14 inches across Vermont, and most places got that. The most I saw was 20 inches at Killington and 17 inches in Braintree. The NWS has issued a complete list of snow totals across northern New York and Vermont.
Up in St. Albans, I had about 9 inches. I have a long driveway to shovel, and I'm too cheap to hire a snow plow guy, so I ended up getting a pretty decent cardio workout without having to go to the gym. Took me close to an hour and a half, but hey, it's exercise.
No doubt a lot of people are going to want to play in the snow this weekend. In the pic, Willa Knight, 2, of Burlington got a head start in the festivities during the storm Wednesday as she made snow angels in Burlington. Photo is by our crack Freeps photog Emily Nelson.
Looks like a good weekend for snow angels, or whatever else you want to do in the powder. A little chilly Saturday (upper teens) and warmer Sunday, with maybe a little snow.
Then we get to the beginning of next week, especially Tuesday, when things get interesting. Those computer models I talked about yesterday are still a bit confused, but they are increasingly suggesting the possibility of a pretty good storm Tuesday. We don't yet know if it will be snow, rain, or a nasty mix.
As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, the big snowstorm is so far behaving about as expected, but there are a few little tweaks in the forecast, as is always the case with a storm like this.
The late afternoon update from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington cuts back the expected snowfall total just a tiny bit in some areas. The Burlington forecast has been cut back to 12.2 inches, from 13.2 inches earlier.
Statewide, look for a total of 8-14 inches, they said, not the 12-16 inches they were talking about earlier. It's still a hefty snowfall. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until late tonight
As expected, this evening's commute looks difficult, with low visibility and a lot of snow. Don't believe me? Check out this photo we took of Interstate 89 today. And the shot was taken before the snow really cranked up.
I'm looking at the radars and it seems there's a slight chance western Vermont could get a bit of a lull in the snow for the drive home. In the radar image below, taken at 4 p.m., you can see the gap in the precip in central New York that's sort of heading this way. It's an iffy proposition that it will get here, so don't absolutely count on the lull.
Some places are really having a wild time of it now. Winds are calm in most areas, but along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, some strong winds have developed. I noticed in the past hour Rutland is gusting to 44 mph. So it's a blizzard in those spots with zero visibility.
As earlier forecasts indicated, the snow will continue falling well into the evening. Sleet might make it into central Vermont for a time, and I wouldn't even be surprised if sleet mixed in ever so briefly as far north as Burlington. But sleet won't be a huge factor.
The storm will be pretty much over by the time you drive to work tomorrow morning, but the roads will surely have snow and ice left on them, so take extra time to get to work. Plus somebody is going to have to dig out the driveway.
Hint: Some of you are not in as good shape as you think you are. A foot or more of snow is a bear to shovel. Stretch before you dig, take breaks, especially if you get winded. And in the off chance you get chest pains, stop shoveling and call 911.
But if you're ambitious, it wouldn't hurt to shovel the elderly neighbor's driveway, and the fire hydrant near the house. The fire department will thank you. Also, shovel snow away from vents, and shovel a path to the fuel oil intake if you're expected a delivery to your house. My buddy Bennie Carrara, a fuel delivery guy, says it's a real struggle to drag the fuel hose through a couple feet of snow. So give him and his pals a break. Who knows, maybe he'll buy you a beer.
Looking ahead, some computer models suggest another good sized snowstorm next Tuesday, while other computer models say fuhgetaboutit. So we'll just have to stay tuned on that one.
For some of us, the storm that started this morning will be the biggest since the infamous Valentine's Day blizzard of '07.
All the ingredients have come together for almost everyone in Vermont to get a foot of snow. The oncoming storm has huge amounts of moisture with it, and there's plenty of cold air in place to keep the precipitation as snow.
The National Weather Service's Winter Storm Warning calls for 12-16 inches of snow, with local amounts to 20 inches, especially in eastern Vermont. Click on the map at right to make it bigger and more readable. It's the National Weather Service's take on expected snowfall in various towns around here. I noticed they're predicting 13.2 inches in Burlington (last night the forecast was for 10.5 inches).
The Eye on the Sky meteorologists out of St. Johnsbury offer a similar forecast as the NWS, but say some isolated areas could get up to 22 inches of snow. The EOS forecast also calls for snowfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour this afternoon, which is impressive.
You can see how wide ranging this storm is, with this NWS radar image of national precipitation as of 9 a.m. this morning.
The trip home from work this evening will be interesting, with several inches of new snow on the ground and visibility limited to almost nothing in heavy snow.
This storm has some similarities to the V-day Blizzard of '07, though it won't be as big. That day Burlington had its snowiest day on record, 25.3 inches.
But here are the echoes of that storm:
---Both this storm and the '07 one hit on a Wednesday. In both, snowfall was light in the morning, but heavy in the afternoon and evening.
---Both storms caused widespread problems in the nation with ice and freezing rain, but the heavy snowfall bullseye was in northern New York and Vermont.
---Each storm was quick. They were in and out of Vermont in 24 hours.
I'll provide updates to this storm as warranted throughout the day. And please feel free to add your comments, observations and thoughts to this blog. The more the merrier
We're still on track to receive a pretty good snowstorm all day tomorrow. Nothing unprecedented, but it will be one of the bigger storms this winter.
A winter storm warning remains in effect all day Wednesday and well into Wednesday night.
The predicted amount of snow for tomorrow is remarkably consistent for the entire state. We'll generally get 8-14 inches.
Seems hard to believe we'll get such a big storm, since it's so clear and beautiful out now. But that's the calm before the storm.
The map of Vermont and northern Vermont to the right is the snowfall predictions for various locations. This is from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read.
The current thinking is the snow will start before dawn tomorrow, but not come down all that hard during the morning. Snow will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Presumably, that means the drive into work tomorrow morning will be a bit hinky, but then it would be much worse on the way home at night.
If we get the predicted 10.5 inches in Burlington tomorrow, that would be the snowiest day of the year. And it would break the record snowfall for the date, Jan. 28, which was 5.3 inches in 1958. The snowiest day ever in Burlington, by the way, was 25.3 inches on Feb. 14, 2007. Remember that one?
One nice thing about this storm is we'll get to enjoy the snow afterward without freezing our bippies off. No below zero weather is expected through next Tuesday, and daytime temps through then are likely to be in the balmy 20s to low 30s.
Another nice thing about this storm is the ice is largely going to miss us. Oh sure, there might be a little sleet from Rutland and White River south, but it won't amount to much.
Further south, through the mid-Atlantic states, look for a devastating ice storm, almost as bad as the one in southern Vermont and New Hampshire in December. Already, large swaths of the South and Tennessee Valley are encased in ice.
The map to the right shows the huge extent of the storm. The pink swath from Texas to Maine is the area of the nation covered by winter storm warnings. The purple is ice storm warnings, and the blue is winter weather advisories.
The news today of course is the snowstorm that appears to be on the way. Pretty classic Vermont snowstorm, it looks like, with a widespread 6 to 14 inches expected statewide tomorrow. It'll be the first good snowstorm since just before Christmas. January has been on the dry, and cold side.Of course, I'll have more on this later today.
The weirdness involves a very rare weather event that happened in St. Albans Friday night. I didn't notice the effects of it until Sunday. What I saw was snow rollers.
You need perfect conditions for it. What happens is, you have dry
powdery snow. Then the temperature gets a little above freezing, and the wind blows hard. The top layer of snow gets to be the perfect consistency for snowballs, and the wind rolls snowballs across fields. I took a few pics.
In the top photo, you see a field of snow rollers near the intersecton of Vermont 104 and Fairfield Hill Road in St. Albans. In the second photo Denis Desjarlais of Jay holds a snow roller. Notice it looks like a donut. The third photo shows a donut-shaped roller, with more rollers in the background.
It's very cool to see the snowrollers, and as I said it's very rare. Only a few cases of it have ever been recorded in Vermont, as far as I can tell. And I've never seen it until now. There were a lot of snow rollers along Vermont 104 between Interstate 89 Exit 19 and the intersectio
n with Vermont 105. There were a particularly large number, and some big ones, at the Vermont State Police Barracks in St. Albans.
Has anyone ever seen these before? Tell me about them
The latest in a series of Arctic, nasty cold snaps is still on its way, arriving here in Vermont Saturday morning for a stay of a few days.
It has been a cold winter so far. December came in just about at normal, while January so far is running about five degrees colder than normal. This cold wave will drop this month's average some more, but we are definitely not on pace to have our coldest month on record. (That was January, 1970, with a mean temperature of 3.6 degrees.)
The woman in the photo looks like she's beseeching the Arctic air to stop approaching us and go somewhere else. I don't blame her. It's not my favorite weather.
In reality, she's crossing guard Ann Fisher, during last Friday's chill, helping kids on Main Street in Burlington (Photo by Freeps photo editor Ryan Mercer,)
Temperatures will fall all day Saturday, starting in the teens at dawn, reaching zero or lower by night. So if you're going out to the slopes, remember: Dressing warm enough for early morning won't be warm enough for afternoon. Winds will be gusting, too, so the wind chill will be nasty.
This cold front will drop a little snow, maybe an inch or so in the valleys. And it will be cold enough so salt won't work well. Roads will stay icy in spots. We've had this problem frequently lately.
It will be 10 below or so Sunday morning. barely in the single numbers Sunday afternoon, and close to 20 below in spots Monday morning. Sigh. Let's see how close Island Pond can come to the 42 below it had last week. Thankfully, I think they'll be closer to 30 below. But still.
It'll sort of warm up next week, making it into the 20s by midweek.
For those looking for more relief, the long range forecasts are giving mixed signals. Some say it will be a warmer first half of February, other computer models aren't so sure about that. All I can suggest, if you don't like this cold, is pretend it is Aug. 11, 1944. It was 101 degrees in Burlington that day, the hottest on record.
Any fans of bitter cold air out there? I'd like to hear from you. So maybe I can learn to like it.
It got below zero again this morning in Burlington, the 11th time so far this winter that's happened. We're half way through meteorological winter, so if the pace continues as is, we'd have 22 subzero readings this winter. But chances are that might not happen. More on that later.
Eleven subzero readings might seem like a lot, we usually get below zero frequently. I checked recent years, and found a total of nine below zero readings all of last winter, 21 subzero readings in the winter of '07; nine in the winter of '06; 18 in the winter of '05 and 22 in the winter of '04.
Photo shows the inside of a car in Jericho in the cold winter of '04. Gauge says it was 19 below outside at the time.
In the forecast, we'll get a relative reprieve for the next couple of days, with temperatures well above zero.
Over the weekend, it's back to the deep freeze, with more subzero readings.
There are hints, just hints, that a weather pattern change is in the offing, where the very end of January and a good part of February will turn a little warmer and wetter, which would reduce the chances of even more below zero weather.
Probably the last thing on Barack Obama's mind right now as he makes history is the weather, but it is a consideration. It's cold down there in Washington DC. If you factor in the wind chill, it's probably a little colder than it is here in Burlington.
The National Weather Service office in the Washington DC area has a special weather statement warning of the cold.
This morning was definitely colder than expected. This was probably Vermont's most intense cold wave since 1994.
On the Burlington Free Press Web site, we have a lot of great photos of the cold,locally and nationally. The photo to the right, by Tony Talbot, shows a frigid Montpelier.
Temperatures fell into record territory.
Burlington reached 21 below this morning, breaking a record for the date of 20 below, set in 1920, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
Montpelier had a record low for the date of 25 below, beating the old date record of 21 below set in 1994, the National Weather Service reported.
St. Johnsbury had a record low of 30 below, according to the Eye in the Sky meteorologists at the Fairbanks Museum and Planetarium.
The coldest reading I could find in Vermont this morning was 42 below (Yikes!) at Island Pond. Here is a complete list of low temps this morning. courtesy of the National Weather Service, South Burlington.
Second photo is a Web cam grab from UVM showing a frigid Burlingotn and Lake Champlain obscured by steam rising from the water into the Arctic Air.
The cold this morning was more intense than forecast because some clouds that were expected to move in after midnight never materialized. Clouds act as a blanket, preventing modest heat from the earth from escaping into space. With no clouds, any "warmth" we had before dawn drifted off to Pluto or somewhere.
The worst of the cold wave is over. Temperatures might even get above zero this afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees either side of zero, which will make you want to throw open the windows, compared to last night's weather, anyway.
It keeps slowly warming up over the weekend. It'll be about 12 Saturday afternoon, 18 Sunday and 22 or so Monday. We'll probably get a few inches of snow Sunday.
There's a good chance the temperature in Burlington today will never get above zero. If that's the case, it'll be the first time we've had a subzero high temperature since January, 2004, when there was four of 'em. (January of '04 was an absolutely miserable month)
NOON UPDATE: It's 2 above in Burlington as of noon. So it still stands that the last subzero high temp in Burlington was in 2004.
Perusing the list of Vermont weather observationsfrom this morning, looks like the cold spot was Island Pond, with 32 below. Most places in Vermont were in the teens and 20s below this morning.
Burlington was a hot spot, with a low of 11 below.
Tomorrow morning's readings will very likely be even colder. My guess is Island Pond has a shot of getting down to the mid or upper 30s below. I'll let you know what happened in another post tomorrow.
I don't like the cold, so I try to distract myself. Here's what works for me, and I invite you to try it.
As you can see, I sprinkled this post with summer pictures. Dig out those fun photos you took at the beach last summer. Or get a Vermont Life calendar and stare at the photos for the months of May through August.
Play some tunes that remind you of summer. Beach Boys work great, of course. Jimmy Buffett is fine, too. Also "Summer in the City" by the Lovin' Spoonful. Or "Girls in their Summer Clothes" by Springsteen. "Summer Breeze" by Seals and Croft. You get the idea.
I also bring myself mentally to a perfect summer day. Everybody's image of perfection is different, but the point is to be as specific as possible when you think about it. For me, I'm standing on the shore of the lake. It's in the low 80s, and not particularly humid. It's sunny, late afternoon, with a few puffy clouds scattered around the distant mountains, which are tinted a pale blue by a slight haze.
There's a nice steady breeze, maybe 15-20 mph, and you can hear the sound of the waves hitting the beach, and the sshhhh sound of the wind blowing through the leaves on the lush, green trees. The wind feels great against my skin. The beach sand feels cool under my bare feet, but the sun is warm on my face. Ahhhhhh.
I'll close with a bright summery YouTube video of the view from Mount Philo in Charlotte:
We're deep in the cold wave now and there's no way out for days. Temperatures in Burlington kept falling even after sunrise, dropping to 4 below as of 8 a.m. The National Weather Service this morning decided to post a wind chill advisory until 11 a.m., since wind chills are even a little worse than expected in northern Vermont; in the 20 to 29 below range.
Things slow down and to me, get a little weird and a little worrisome when we have a winter cold snap. Everything takes longer. Other times of the year, it's a simple matter of leaving the house in the morning and heading off to work. Boom, you're off and gone.
In this weather, it's an ordeal of putting on layer after layer of clothes, and hoping I remembered to pack a change of clothes more suitable for indoor air for the office. All these layers of clothes are restricting. I feel like a hostage tied up somewhere by evil kidnappers. You also have to run out and start the truck and warm it up, and drive carefully on icy roads. I long for the day when I can hop into the Tacoma in a t-shirt at 7 a.m., turn the ignition and zoom immediately off to wherever I have to go.
And, in this cold, I worry. Is the heat on at home high enough to keep the pipes from freezing? How the hell am I going to pay for all the fuel oil I'm burning, anyway? Did I do everything possible to the truck to ensure it starts later this week, when the temperature gets to 20 below? And what about those homeless guys I see huddled in corners? Will they be OK? Will that elderly couple in the ramshackle mobile home down the road have enough money to heat their home? Or will they freeze?
My brain thinks weirder than usual when it's cold. The lake looks like an immense steaming bowl of soup. However, I know it's not nearly as inviting as Campbell's.
Little trails of steam come from all the car tailpipes. They remind me of curly wagging tails on happy pigs.
I see a surprising number of joggers in the subzero cold. Show me a Vermonter who runs faithfully outside in any kind of weather and I'll show you somebody getting ready for the KeyBank Vermont City Marathon in May.
Now it's your turn. Weigh in on the cold. Do you like it? hate it? How is it affecting you? What's the coldest you've ever seen. Share your stories here. Just post a comment.
As of 4:30 p.m., the snow has started across much of Vermont. It will come down mostly lightly for the next few hours, and blow around in the winds that are gusting to 30 mph or more in the Champlain Valley.
It'll get worse later, when the Arctic front arrives.
Looks like the roads will be iffy for the evening commute and worse later, after 9 p.m. when the front arrives, accompanied by heavy snow squalls.
The temperature will drop dramatically, so any water on the roads will freeze into a skating rink. Visibilities will drop to zero in heavy snow and blowing snow, so you don't want to be out in that.
Luckily, the heavy snow won't last long, so visibility will improve drastically late tonight, and we'll get maybe 1 to 4 inches of new snow.
Nothing else will improve, weatherwise, for the next several days.
I will interrupt this annoying whine with some perspective: Photo in this post is from the Grand Forks, N.D. Herald, of a snowplow trying, not too successfully, it looks like, to clear 62nd Ave. South in Grand Forks. Looks grim. Photo is by Herald photog John Stennes. The accompanying Herald articlesays it was 37 below there.
Anyway, let's count the ways it will me miserable for awhile:
1. It's going to be too cold through Saturday for salt to work, so the snow and ice will stay on the roads for days.
2. The cold wave is going to be as bad, and at times maybe a little worse than originally expected. Thursday night looks to be the nastiest, with temperatures in the upper teens below in the Champlain Valley and 20s below elsewhere. Look for some 30 below readings in the coldest spots. Daytime highs for the rest of the week will be barely above zero, if that.
There's a slight chance it could reach 20 below in Burlington early Friday morning. If that happens, it'll be the first time it's reached 20 below since Jan. 15, 2004.
3. The cold will last longer than expected. As of yesterday, we were expecting temps to rebound into the upper teens and 20s this weekend. Actually, it'll make it into the single numbers Saturday, and perhaps the low teens Sunday.
4. It's not going to really warm up for the foreseeable future. It'll be less cold in general next week, but not exactly balmy, either. Maybe about 20, on average?
So, I guess my only dvice is to wear all your clothes at once if you go out this week
The surprise snowfall this weekend cheered winter sports enthusiasts, no doubt (A storm moved a little further north than expected.) Some places got 8 or more inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service/South Burlington list of snow totals It was all fluff, so it'll pack down some. And it was easy to shovel.
The well-advertised cold snap for this week is still on its way. Forecasters have backed off a bit on the severity of it, but Wednesday through Friday look brutal. Highs barely above zero, temps at night in the teens to low 20s below. The cold snap is a piece of Arctic air that broke off from a long-lasting cold snap in Alaska. According to the Fairbanks, Alaska, News Miner,a paper up there, it was 40 below or colder for 10 consecutive days, which is no where near a record. A dramatic warm-up is under way up there, with temps expected to rise to a hot, humid zero by today. They're used to the cold, I suppose, up there. Image here is a photo of a squirrel enjoying 40 below weather last winter in Alaska. Photo came from Squirrel Chatter, a blog by Robert Gilcrease of North Pole, Alaska.
For us, the bitterest of winter cold snaps don't usually last long. In this case, the worst of it will last three days, which is pretty typical. By this weekend, it'll be cold, but reasonable, with temps sneaking into the teens in the afternoons. We'll get a bit of snow now and then during the week, so get ready to board, ski, snowshoe or however you play in the snow next weekend. I've got my snowshoes ready to roll. In the meantime, stay warm! --Matt
Snowfalls are usually so variable in Vermont that forecasters end up being both wrong and right in their predictions. The storm on Wednesday and Thursday was a classic example.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington had predicted 6-12 inches in the northern half of Vermont.
Here in Burlington, we got less than 3 inches, so the forecast was definitely off. But most other areas got more. My place in St. Albans got about 5.5 inches, so the forecast was just a little shy of accurate.
And according to the NWS final snowfall list some places definitely got more than 6 inches of snow, including 10 inches in Eden.
For other entertainment, here's another installment of the occasional series, Vermont Weather YouTube, where I select some good weather videos shot in Vermont. Today we have a dramatic hailstorm in Bethel on Aug. 8
...And the now infamous "shelf cloud" during a severe thunderstorm over Burlington on June 10:
Enjoy, Matt
UPDATE: SadieKatz asks a very good question about shelf clouds. They do look like horizontal tornadoes, don't they? But they are definitely not tornadoes. Shelf clouds form on the front side of a severe thunderstorm. Cool air from the storm rushes down from the near the top of the thunderstorm then spreads outward when it hits the ground. The spreading cold air forces warm and moist air ahead of the storm upward. The rising warm air creates the ominous looking shelf cloud attached to the front of the thunderstorm. Shelf clouds aren't that common here in Vermont, but they happen from time to time. They're more common in the Midwest, where there are more severe storms than here. No tornadoes come from shelf clouds
As of 4 p.m., light freezing rain continued in Burlington, and police scanner traffic has reports of accidents, especially on Interstate 89 near Exit 15.
It's messy out there, and the roads are unpredictable. When I was out earlier, you'd cruise along and everything was fine, the road would be pretty much just wet. Then the road would suddenly be ice, not wet. That explains the accidents. Photo by Alison Redlich shows iffy conditions on Shelburne Road this morning.
Precipitation came down lighter than expected this afternoon because of some dry air that poked into the storm system aloft (The dry air had been expected to go by to our east) Moreover, a coastal storm that was supposed to really wind up didn't, so more warm air was able to stream in, causing more freezing rain and sleet than expected, according to the folks at the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
We're still expecting snow. The coastal storm is finally getting its act together a bit, and that has the effect of pulling in colder air several thousand feet overhead. That means freezing rain and sleet will change to snow tonight from northwest to southeast. I noticed at 3 p.m. Plattsburgh reported mixed precipitation and at 4 p.m. it had changed to snow there, so I think the process of changing to snow has started.
We could get a pretty good burst of snow tonight, so total accumulation from this storm will still probably be in the 4-9 inch range. Roads could ice up further as temperatures drop a bit this evening and precipitation picks up in intensity a little bit, and changes to snow. ---Matt S.
As of 11:15 a.m. some of the heavier precipitation seems to be steering around Burlington, though it's snowing, sleeting and raining in most of Vermont. I think Burlington might be temporarily missing out because a strong southeast wind a few thousand feet up is creating a "shadow" effect. The wind goes up and over the Green Mountains from the east. The downward motion of the air in the Champlain Valley _ the air coming down the western slopes of the Greens_ inhibits precipitation. So far, snowfall totalshave been remarkably uniform across Vermont with 2 inch totals so far being really common. The forecast has been adjusted slightly. There will be a little more sleet and freezing rain and a little less snow thatn previously thought, according to the National Weather Service. Forecast storm totals have been cut in northern Vermont from 6-12 inches, to the current forecast of 5-9 inches. The mix is still forecast to go back to snow tonight and end tomorrow. I worry a bit about southern Vermont, hit hard by the December ice storm. Ice accumulation there, combined with local winds gusting past 30 mph, might cause some more tree and power line damage in that neck of the woods.
As of 9 a.m., the storm has been behaving as expected, and the forecast hasn't changed much since last night.
Mixed precipitation has worked its way into central Vermont. It'll sleet further north as the day goes on.
There's a bit of a lull in the precip in the Champlain Valley now, but radar shows, and a short term forecast issued by the National Weather Service says, that the snow and sleet will pick up in intensity very shortly.
You can see in the radar image to the right, taken a little before 9 a.m. there's a lot of precip in the northwest U.S. It's all heading toward the northeast, so you can see we have a lot of snow and mixed precip to get through today.
Today accumulations across northern Vermont are still expected to range in the 6-12 inch range by tomorrow.
I'll update the situation throughout the day as warranted.
Little has changed in the National Weather Service's thinking about the upcoming storm. A winter storm warning is still in effect from 1 a.m. Wednesday to 1 p.m. Thursday.
They're still looking at a mix of precipitation.
You can see by the radar image at right, taken at about 5 p.m. Tuesday, that a little precipitation is already knocking at southern Vermont's doorstep, though the bulk of it is still in the Ohio Valley, making a beeline toward us.
The NWS Forecast Discussionreveals some of the thinking on the timing of the snow, the mix, etc. No guarantees on it, things could change, but it's the best guess you can get during a complex storm.
In the Burlington area:
1. It starts snowing at around 2 a.m. Wednesday.
2. The morning commute is quite snowy and slow.
3. A changeover to sleet works its way northward across Vermont reaching Burlington in the late morning or toward noon. The sleet reaches all the way to the Canadian border by late afternoon. Meanwhile, freezing rain gets going down in Rutland and Orange counties south.
4. The Wednesday evening commute is lousy.
5. The sleet and mix goes back over to snow overnight Wednesday. Most of the snow is in the northern half of Vermont. Maybe another 1-3 inches, for a total of 6-12 inches north, with the highest accumulation furthest north. Less south because of the sleet and freezing rain.
6. Valleys are pretty much out of the woods Thursday morning with just lingering flurries, but mountains can expect another 1-3 inches. Maybe more in some spots.
7. Look forward to a somewhat chilly, occasionally snowy weekend (though not a huge dump)
There are still indications of a horrible subzero cold wave toward the second half of the week, and into the weekend of Jan. 17-18.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington has upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning. Remember, a watch means maybe we'll get a storm and a warning means it's pretty much definite we're in for a storm. The forecasters have gotten a little more specific in their predicted snow and sleet amounts. In the northern half of Vermont, expect 6 to 12 inches of snow and sleet accumulation by Thursday morning. The further northwest you go, expect more snow and less sleet. South of a line from about Middlebury to Bradford, expect some freezing rain, too. That'll cut accumulations down to 4-7 inches in the southern half of Vermont.
The timing of the storm remains the same. Snow will start after midnight, be in full swing for the morning commute, and then we'll get into the sleet during the day and early evening. It'll go back to snow Wednesday night before finally tapering off sometimes Thursday.
Sick of driving in icy weather? Well, tough. Part of the winter storm warning reads as follows: "Significant travel impacts are expected with this storm, especially during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. The evening commute on Wednesday will be particularly poor, with untreated surfaces featuring very poor traction."
More wonderful news. Looks like we're maybe in for some really bitter Arctic outbreaks during the middle of next week into the following week. That means some days will be near 0 in the afternoon, and maybe in the 20s below zero at night. I'll do a late afternoon update on this storm Cheers, Matt
The National Weather Service in South Burlington has hoisted a winter storm watch for all of Vermont, starting in the pre-dawn hours tomorrow and lasting into Thursday.
This looks like a typical Vermont winter storm, snow, sleet, etc., and you know the drill: You'll need to make extra time to get to and from work tomorrow, you'll need to drive carefully, yada, yada, yada.
As you can sort of see on the forecast map for tomorrow, (click on it to make it bigger) there are two low pressure systems in the northeast. The one over New York is the original storm. It's sort of going to our west, which means warm air streams in. But there's a new storm forming on the coast (the one on the map near Cape Cod) that would cut off some of the warm air moving in.
How much mix depends on how fast the New York low weakens and the coastal one takes over. If the New York low is more dominate, look forwarmer air aloft, thus more ice and rain. If the coastal is stronger, it will be colder, and there will be more snow.
As it stands now, it looks like the storm will start with a burst of snow, and as it looks now, quite a bit of sleet will mix in during the day tomorrow. So it looks like a "sneet" storm for us in the Champlain Valley. Early guesses are for 4 or 5 inches of new snow and sleet.
There might be a little freezing rain, too, to make things even more interesting. And the parts of southern Vermont that got a disasterous ice storm in December looks like they'll get another ice storm. The good news is there won't be nearly as much ice as there was in December.
Happy New Year! I took a few days off to relax, but now I'm back. Weather in these parts is kind of boring, with no earth shattering events on the horizon. A modest storm is due Wednesday, maybe with 3-6 inches of snow, as an early guess, but it'll probably be typical Vermont: A few inches mixed with a bit of other stuff. While trolling for interesting stuff, I stumbled on some videos from Poland taken last summer (With a last name like Sutkoski, you can see how I'd have an affinity for Poland) Anyway, they don't get a lot of tornadoes in Poland, which explains why people didn't get out of the way in these really dramatic videos: News reports from August say only minor injuries were reported on the bus.
Different forecasts had called for 10.5, 13.2 or 12.2 inches there.
powdery snow. Then the temperature gets a little above freezing, and the wind blows hard. The top layer of snow gets to be the perfect consistency for snowballs, and the wind rolls snowballs across fields. I took a few pics. 
